Real Madrid, Valencia and the First Signals from EuroLeague Pre-Season

A friendly match ended with a score of 93-91. Two Spanish teams were separated by just two points on an evening in Valencia. A few hundred kilometres away, Real Madrid scored 113 points against Malaga, claiming the Costa del Sol tournament for the 15th time in club history. Two results separated by a walking distance, yet they raise two completely different questions about the upcoming EuroLeague season. These are not two stories about a win and a loss. These are two stories about two different ways of using the pre-season period — one used it to measure rhythm, the other to measure strength. Both approaches have merit, but only one of them gives us credible answers about October. I sat in front of my screen watching these two matches on the same evening, recording numbers that initially seemed meaningless. Six Real Madrid players scored in double figures. Valencia allowed Baskonia to score 91 points despite winning. Kenneth Farid and TJ Shorts — two former Panathinaikos players — stood at opposite ends of the court facing each other. All these details initially appeared as scattered data, but when placed side by side, a larger picture began to emerge. The 2026-25 EuroLeague season is about to begin, and teams are entering the final preparation phase. Real Madrid, Valencia, Baskonia, and Malaga — four Spanish representatives — are all in decisive weeks before the EuroLeague Super Cup takes place in a few days. Costa del Sol is an annual pre-season tournament held in southern Spain. It is not an official competition, but it serves as an important measure of physical stability and tactical cohesion for top teams. Real Madrid has just won the Costa del Sol for the 15th time — a figure that shows their pre-season culture is no accident. Valencia chose a different approach. They faced Baskonia in a friendly where both sides wanted to win. The 93-91 scoreline shows the intensity was no different from an official match. In this game, two former Panathinaikos players — TJ Shorts (Valencia) and Kenneth Farid (Baskonia) — faced each other directly, a confrontation between two men who knew each other from the Greek league. Malaga, the team that lost to Real Madrid by 39 points, appears to be in a rebuilding phase. Billy Hernangomez — brother of Juancho Hernangomez who played in the NBA — scored 11 points and 5 rebounds, but that was not enough to mask the talent gap between them and their opponent. Kendrick Perry scored 16 points, Cameron Hunt scored 15, but these two clear threats could not pull Malaga out of the abyss. I spent about six hours reviewing these two matches, recording numbers and trying to separate signal from noise. The first thing I noticed: Real Madrid is not just winning — they are winning with distribution. Six Real Madrid players scored in double figures against Malaga: Malencon 19, Loubalu-Kabaro 16, Cabacho 15, Sar 11, Okeeke 10, Dek 10. This is not the usual stat padding phenomenon in friendlies — when a team can score 113 points with such even distribution, it is a sign of a genuinely deep offensive system. They do not depend on a single star. They have multiple scorers good enough to share responsibility. Real Madrid is building an offensive machine that can withstand the pressure of a dense schedule — and that is the most valuable asset of the pre-season period. I have analyzed teams with only one scoring star throughout a season, and they always struggle when that star rests due to injury or fatigue. Real Madrid seems to have learned this lesson years ago. They are not betting on a single shooter — they are building a system where every player can become a threat. But this is where I start to question. Does scoring 113 points against Malaga really tell us anything? Malaga is a team that may be in the late stages of rebuilding. They lost by 39 points at home. I tried to search for advanced metrics — TS%, eFG%, defensive-to-offensive conversion rates — but friendly data does not provide these numbers. Only points and rebounds. And that is a major problem for anyone wanting to draw tactical conclusions from these two matches. Now let us talk about the Valencia-Baskonia match. The 93-91 scoreline is a match where the result matters less than how it unfolded. Both teams fielded their strongest lineups — the clearest sign that they are taking the pre-season seriously. No experimentation with young players, no unusual rotations. This was a real match. TJ Shorts, a small but technically gifted player who previously wore the Panathinaikos jersey, stood before Kenneth Farid — his former teammate in Greece. I tried to track how Shorts orchestrated the ball, how he sought space within Valencia's system. Based on my experience watching matches, a small player like Shorts typically has a very high usage rate — potentially above 25% — meaning Valencia will depend heavily on his playmaking ability. Valencia is betting heavily on a single ball handler — and that could be a double-edged sword over a long season. Shorts can score and assist, but he will also face larger defenders in later rounds. EuroLeague is not a competition for small players — it is a competition where size and strength often decide results in big games. I have seen too many small players succeed in the group stage only to disappear in the playoffs. Real Madrid, by contrast, does not appear to share this weakness. Six players scoring in double figures shows their system does not depend on anyone. They can rest a star and still win. That is the difference between a team built for an entire season and a team built for a few big games. I tried a simple calculation: if Real Madrid scores 113 points without anyone scoring over 20, that means they can easily replace Malencon if he runs into trouble. But if Shorts runs into trouble at Valencia, who replaces him? That is the question Valencia's coaching staff has not answered during the pre-season. The 15th Costa del Sol title is a notable number. It is not just a tournament victory — it is evidence of continuity in pre-season culture. Real Madrid has won Costa del Sol 15 times, meaning they have maintained their core squad, coaching system, and playing philosophy across many years. In modern basketball, continuity is worth more than gold. I previously analyzed Olympiacos in 2026, and what I realized is: teams that win consistently during pre-season tend to have a deep sporting culture. They do not just train to win friendlies — they train to maintain standards. Real Madrid is clearly in that group. But this is where I must pause and ask the reverse question. All the above analysis is based on two friendlies. Only two matches. No detailed tactical data, no advanced metrics, no information on how the teams defended. I am building a large picture from very small pieces. There is a saying in basketball analysis that I always remember: pre-season friendlies are the stage of illusions. A team winning by 39 in a friendly will not necessarily win by 10 in EuroLeague. A team losing by 2 in a friendly might win by 20 when they meet that opponent again in March. Real Madrid is winning Costa del Sol — great for team morale but no guarantee for the upcoming EuroLeague Super Cup. I have seen too many teams win friendly tournaments only to fail in their first official matches. The winning machine is just an illusion until someone is ready to break it. On the other hand, Valencia losing by 2 might actually be a good sign. They tested their lineup, gave Shorts time to learn the system, let Farid understand Baskonia's philosophy. Sometimes losing a friendly is more valuable than winning — it tells you what needs to be fixed before it becomes a bigger problem. And Malaga — the team that lost by 39 — may be using that match as a real test. They know they are weaker than Real Madrid; they do not need that match to confirm it. They need it to see how much energy Billy Hernangomez still has at 30, how much pressure Kendrick Perry can handle, and whether Cameron Hunt is a long-term solution at guard. Every result is a deliberate lie — and these two friendlies are lying in their own way. I also want to mention a detail that few people notice: two former Panathinaikos players, Shorts and Farid, are facing each other. Both wore the Greek team's jersey before moving to Spain. This shows Panathinaikos operates as a development platform — a place where European and American players are trained and then move to bigger clubs. If both succeed in EuroLeague this season, it will be a story worth following about European basketball's player development model. Real Madrid will enter the EuroLeague Super Cup in a few days, and everything they have done during the pre-season will be put on the scale. A convincing win will confirm that the 15th Costa del Sol is not an illusion. A loss will raise the question of whether they are overconfident in an untested system. The question I am asking is not whether Real Madrid is strong — they clearly are. The question is: does being strong at Costa del Sol mean being strong in EuroLeague? A friendly tournament in southern Spain and a competition gathering 18 top European clubs are two completely different arenas. And then there is Valencia — betting on a small player in a competition of giants. Can TJ Shorts maintain consistent form throughout 34 rounds? Or will he become a short-term fairy tale that disappears when big teams figure out how to lock him down? Basketball never ends with the whistle — it ends with the question, and the question about Shorts is still waiting for an answer. In basketball, the pre-season period does not lie — but it also does not tell the whole truth. It only gives us the first clue, and the writer must decide which clues are worth pursuing. The podcast is not born in the studio, it is born in the silence of the world — and analysis is the same, born in the numbers that most people overlook.