Valanciunas Shines in Zalgiris' Second Preseason Win: What Is the Preseason Victory Hiding?

Hook: The number 14 doesn't lie, but the people choosing the numbers do

When Jonas Valanciunas scored 14 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in just the first half against Juventus, the crowd at Zalgirio Arena had a reason to dream. This was the second consecutive preseason victory for Zalgiris, and Lithuanian fans are starting to whisper about a special season. But I don't watch the game; I read it like a motion-picture income statement. And this report is hiding a large liability in the defensive column.

Context: The summer symphony and the expensive pieces

Zalgiris Kaunas had a summer that the media called the "strongest in their EuroLeague era." They brought Valanciunas back home after a storied NBA career, retained Nigel Williams-Goss, and signed Saben Lee - an athlete with immense physical tools. But few mention the flip side of the picture: Moses Wright left to join Olimpia Milano, and Sylvain Francisco moved to Panathinaikos. Two of their most mobile, NBA-skilled players have left Kaunas for wealthier clubs.

This second preseason game, a win over Juventus - a lower-tier LKL team - tells us nothing about tactical adaptability against elite EuroLeague defenses. It was a domestic opponent far below their level. But the data from the game is still worth dissecting: Valanciunas scored all 14 points in the first half, Williams-Goss had 6 assists, and role players like Dustin Sliva (10 points), Marius Grigonis (9 points), and Saben Lee (8 points) contributed steadily.

Core: The half-court offensive puzzle and the price of return

Zalgiris is building their offensive system around "post-up and dribble-handoff" with Valanciunas as the focal point, fed by Williams-Goss's playmaking. This is a clear tactical choice - nothing innovative, but with a high execution rate. Valanciunas, at age 32, remains one of the best low-post technicians in Europe. He doesn't need speed to score - he needs space and patience.

But look at the 14-point first half. That means the coaching staff is running scripted offensive sets, designed to create high-quality post-ups early in the game. This is a typical preseason drill - building confidence for the new star. The problem: when the regular season begins, EuroLeague opponents won't give him such easy space.

Data from the NBA shows a worrying trend: Valanciunas's scoring efficiency drops significantly against elite rim protectors and switch-heavy defenses. Teams like Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, or Real Madrid will pull him out of the paint with pick-and-rolls, forcing him to defend in space - where his NBA history shows he struggles.

The arrival of Saben Lee (8 points in this game) hints at an interesting calculation: Zalgiris may use a two-point-guard lineup to compensate for Valanciunas's defensive immobility by pushing a faster pace. But this is still experimental, and data from one preseason game is insufficient for definitive conclusions.

Contrarian: The preseason win is hiding a defensive crisis

Zalgiris could be worse defensively this season than last, despite winning more preseason games, because they sacrificed two mobile defenders for one scoring center. Moses Wright and Sylvain Francisco weren't just offensive stars - they were flexible defensive pieces capable of switching across positions. Valanciunas, despite his excellence in rim protection and rebounding, is a liability in space.

Imagine a pick-and-roll between Kendrick Nunn and a mobile center from Panathinaikos. Valanciunas would be dragged out of the paint, and if he can't keep up, Zalgiris must choose between leaving the perimeter exposed or losing control of the paint. This is a puzzle with no easy solution.

I've followed Valanciunas since his early NBA days, and I can say this: he's one of the best offensive centers of his generation, but his defense in space has never been a strength. In the EuroLeague, where teams like Olympiacos use five-out offenses, this becomes a serious problem.

Takeaway: The championship window is open, but closing fast

Zalgiris Kaunas is certainly a stronger team than last season. They have a EuroLeague-caliber star, a reliable playmaker, and a roster with reasonable depth. But the biggest question isn't how many points they can score - it's how many they can prevent.

Valanciunas, with his Lithuanian citizenship, helps Zalgiris bypass foreign-player restrictions and brings an unquantifiable cultural advantage. But if he gets injured - an ever-present risk for a 32-year-old center - Zalgiris would collapse entirely, as they have no NBA-caliber backup center.

Does this preseason win reflect Zalgiris's true strength? Let's wait until they face the Spanish, Italian, and Turkish giants in the official EuroLeague season. That will be the real test, and I'll be watching with a cold, data-driven eye.

This article is based on analysis from Stage-2 Deep Professional Analysis, combined with my personal experience following games.