Jokic scores only 8 points, but Serbia still beats Italy thanks to roster depth – Lessons from FIBA World Cup 2027 Qualifiers

Hook

A qualifying game on the road where the team’s biggest star scores only 8 points – and the team still wins. That is not a common script in elite basketball, where a superstar’s output usually correlates with the final result. Yet in the Serbia vs Italy FIBA World Cup 2027 Qualifier, Nikola Jokic – the reigning NBA MVP – had just 8 points and 8 rebounds, while Serbia won 76-64 on Italian soil. The question: is this a sign that Serbia has outgrown its dependence on Jokic, or just an exception in a night where everything clicked perfectly?

Context

This game was part of the second window of the FIBA World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers, Group J. Serbia entered with a 5-2 record, sitting second in the group, while Italy led at 5-1. However, Italy had just lost their previous game in the same window, denting their morale. Serbia also felt pressure after losing four consecutive games to Italy in recent head-to-head meetings. This was a decisive match for the group lead and for the psychological edge ahead of major tournaments like EuroBasket 2026 and the World Cup 2027.

Notably, Jokic chose to play in this qualifying window – a rarity for NBA stars due to scheduling conflicts with the NBA season. His presence signals strong coordination between the Serbian federation and the Denver Nuggets, or Jokic’s personal commitment to the national team. Yet his performance was far from the dominant displays we are used to.

Core

Tactical and data analysis shows Serbia won through a completely different approach: roster depth and fourth-quarter defense. Aleksa Avramovic scored 20 points and Marko Guduric added 19 – they were the silent heroes. Both are role players, not superstars, but in coach Dušan Alimpijevic’s system, they were given offensive responsibility when Jokic was neutralized. Despite scoring little, Jokic still grabbed 8 rebounds and made numerous invisible assists, stretching Italy’s defense to create space for teammates.

Serbia dominated the fourth quarter 19-10, a total lockdown. Their defense allowed Italy only 10 points in the final 10 minutes – a rare feat at the international level. Italy, with Nico Mannion scoring 20 and Simone Fontecchio adding 15, received no support from the bench. Italy’s reliance on Mannion was evident: when he was neutralized or without the ball, their offense stalled.

Another angle involves injury: Nikola Milutinov, Serbia’s backup center, left the game with an injury but later returned. This highlights the fragility of Serbia’s depth, but also their fighting spirit. If Milutinov misses future games, the burden on Jokic will increase.

Contrarian

A counterintuitive perspective: this victory might be hiding a problem. While Avramovic and Guduric shined, can they sustain this performance against elite defenses like France, Germany, or the USA in major tournaments? History shows that role players often lack consistency over a long, high-pressure campaign. Moreover, Italy lost not because Serbia played exceptionally well, but because they lost their rhythm. Mannion’s 20 points could be considered “empty stats” when looking at team efficiency – Italy had no Plan B when Mannion was hounded.

A tactical blind spot: Italy failed to exploit Jokic’s low scoring by shifting defensive focus to other players. They still doubled Jokic, inadvertently giving Avramovic and Guduric more space. This was a mid-game adjustment error by Italy’s coach. If Italy had played Jokic one-on-one and accepted his scoring, the story might have been different.

Takeaway

Serbia sent a strong message to their rivals: they can win even when Jokic is quiet. But the real question is: is this depth enough to take them to the top of the 2027 World Cup, or was it just a lucky night against a struggling Italy? Italy needs to find additional scoring options beyond Mannion, and Serbia must maintain the consistency of their role players. The qualifiers continue, and Jokic remains the center of everything. “A low-tier game on a small screen, and I saw an entire universe moving.” – but that universe still revolves around one star.