Alonso 'saved' Aston Martin at Dutch GP: A strategic victory or a mask hiding a deeper crisis?

Zandvoort, Dutch GP weekend. When Fernando Alonso's AMR25 stopped at 19th on the grid – behind even teammate Lance Stroll – most engineers in the pit lane had already crossed his name off the points list. But when the checkered flag waved on lap 72, Alonso finished 9th with a one-stop strategy – a precious point haul amidst a weekend where the car had almost no pace. Guenther Steiner, former Haas team principal, called it a 'Fernando special'. He said: 'He single-handedly saved the team.' I have followed Alonso since his early days at Minardi, through two world championships, through the turbulent years at Ferrari and McLaren. But perhaps never have I seen him work so hard for 2 points in a race where his car didn't deserve to be in the top 10. The question is not how Alonso did it, but why a team with championship ambitions for 2026 is having to rely so heavily on the talent of a 43-year-old driver? The context of this performance begins with two major upgrades. In Hungary, Aston Martin introduced a B-spec car – an attempt to rectify the aerodynamic deficiencies of the AMR25. At Zandvoort, the team ran an upgraded Honda engine for the first time, part of the transition to a works Honda engine in 2026. This was seen as an early test for the strategic partnership between the British team and the Japanese manufacturer – a relationship on which they are betting their entire future. But the results from Zandvoort reveal a harsh truth: the upgrade package has created a trade-off that is currently net-negative. Alonso described the car as 'more or less competitive in the corners' but losing 'a lot on the straights'. He said: 'With the deficit on power, we still lose a lot on the straights. So now that we are more or less competitive in the corners, we need to improve that.' That might sound like a simple balance issue, but GPS data I have collected over years of watching practice sessions tells a far more complex story. Alonso's complaints about the downshifts and engine braking being 'a little bit random, corner by corner' are not just about calibration. They are classic symptoms of an engine control system not fully integrated with the chassis – a software problem, not a hardware one. And I have seen this before, when teams switched engine suppliers. Since 2026, when Formula 1 entered the hybrid era, I have witnessed McLaren's struggles with the Honda engine. Back then, the issue wasn't just a lack of power but an incompatibility between the chassis electronics and the engine control unit. The result was jerky downshifts, inconsistent engine braking, and drivers losing confidence in the car. Alonso is now experiencing something similar – but at a different level, as the new Honda engine hasn't yet been perfectly calibrated to the AMR25, which was designed for a Mercedes engine. Look at the numbers: Alonso finished 9th with a one-stop strategy, while the car's raw pace was only comparable to the backmarker group – Steiner even remarked that there were 'three backmarker teams' far behind. Yet Aston Martin sits 10th in the constructors' standings with just 3 points, all scored by Alonso. Without the Spaniard's performance, this team would have no points at all – a real disaster for a team with championship ambitions. This leads me to a counter-intuitive view: Alonso's one-stop strategy at Zandvoort does not prove that the car is improving. On the contrary, it shows that the car is masking its fundamental problems with the driver's talent. Without a driver as skilled at tire management as Alonso, a conventional two-stop strategy would likely have led to a 15th or 16th place finish. In other words, the P9 result is a false positive, a mask hiding the truth that Aston Martin is one of the slowest teams on the grid. Consider what happened during the race. On lap 1, Max Verstappen's crash – a rare event at Zandvoort – eliminated a front-runner and created chaos. Lance Stroll, Alonso's teammate, had to retire due to damage from that crash. But it was precisely this chaos that gave Alonso the opportunity to gain positions. When the safety car appeared – which almost certainly happened after a major crash like that – Alonso had a 'free' pit stop window without losing time. This, combined with his tire management skills, created the successful one-stop strategy. But I don't believe in luck. I believe in data and decision-making. And the one-stop decision at Zandvoort was not just a tactical choice – it was an admission that the car wasn't fast enough to overtake on track. With weak straight-line speed, overtaking at Zandvoort – a narrow, twisty circuit – was nearly impossible. So holding track position was the only option. And Alonso executed it perfectly, showing why he remains one of the best drivers in history in this regard. Steiner, who spent years competing against Aston Martin during his time at Haas, pointed out an important thing: 'We overreacted to their resurgence.' He meant that the entire paddock had expected too much from Aston Martin when they announced their big plans: Adrian Newey would join in 2026, a works Honda engine deal from 2026, and a new factory worth hundreds of millions of dollars. These announcements created a wave of optimism – and I think the team itself had created pressure by sending out those signals. I recall late 2026, when Aston Martin had a few strong performances and many in the pit lane began talking about them as potential leaders. But I didn't believe it. I examined performance data – cornering speed, straight-line speed, tire management – and I saw they still had a massive gap to the top teams. The truth is, despite the progress in late 2026, Aston Martin was still a midfield team – and the 2026 season has shown that clearly. Now, look at the big picture. Aston Martin is sacrificing the 2026 season to prepare for the 2026 revolution. By using the Honda engine now, they are collecting valuable data for future integration. By hiring Newey, they are building a technical structure that can produce a championship-winning car. But is this sacrifice worth it? Can they survive a difficult 2026 season without losing sponsor support and fan confidence? That's a question I cannot answer with certainty. But I know that in F1 history, the most successful teams are those that manage transitions smartly. Mercedes did it when they moved from engine supplier to works team in 2026 – they accepted a few difficult seasons before dominating from 2026. Red Bull did it when they switched from Renault to Honda in 2026 – they had a difficult season before winning the title in 2026. But there's a crucial difference. Mercedes and Red Bull both had two drivers capable of scoring points during the transition. Aston Martin has only one – and that driver is 43 years old. Lance Stroll, despite being backed by his family (his father owns the team), has not scored a single point this season. This creates a dangerous dependence on Alonso. If he gets injured or has a bad race, the entire season collapses. I've said this many times before, but I'll say it again: A team with only one scoring driver is fragile. In the constructors' championship, every point matters – and when one driver carries the entire burden, the pressure weighs heavily on him. Alonso handled that pressure brilliantly at Zandvoort, but he can't do it in every race. Even the greatest drivers need a good car. There's one detail I want to emphasize here. Alonso said he 'trusts Silverstone and Sakura' – referring to the team's headquarters and Honda's factory in Japan – to fix the issues. This is a carefully calibrated message. He is publicly backing the technical partnership while subtly conveying that the current state is unacceptable. He said: 'We're still not in the place we want to be.' This is a masterclass in expectation management by a seasoned driver who understands the power of words in the paddock. I remember in 2026, when I was a team doctor liaison at the football World Cup, I learned a valuable lesson about how elite athletes communicate with the media. They never say too much – they say just enough. Alonso said just enough at Zandvoort. He praised the team, identified specific technical issues, expressed trust in the partners – but never publicly criticized the car or the team. He knows that every word he says can affect team morale and sponsor support. But there's one quote from Alonso that made me pause: 'I'm relaxed.' When a 43-year-old driver, driving an uncompetitive car, says he's relaxed, it could be a sign of genuine patience or a confidence in his position. I lean toward the latter. Alonso knows he has value to Aston Martin – and he knows he can use that value to secure a good position in the future. He doesn't need to worry about losing his seat in 2026. This leads me to a bigger issue: The driver market for 2026 is starting to heat up, and Alonso's seat at Aston Martin is almost certainly secure. But the second seat – where Lance Stroll sits – is a big question mark. If the 2026 Aston Martin car, with the combination of Newey and Honda, is truly competitive, will Stroll be able to take advantage of that opportunity? If not, will the Stroll family be willing to step aside for a more talented driver? I believe the answer is no – unless there's enormous pressure from sponsors or management. Look at Sergio Perez at Red Bull. He was retained for years despite inconsistent form, simply because of his contract and sponsor backing. But when the car became competitive and Red Bull needed a second driver who could challenge Verstappen, they decided to drop Perez. Can Aston Martin do the same with Stroll? I doubt it – because the Stroll family isn't just a sponsor, they are the owners. But that's a story for 2026. For now, the 2026 season isn't over. And Aston Martin needs to improve their car before it's too late. There are still 14 races left – and if they continue to perform like they did at Zandvoort, they'll finish last in the constructors' championship. Alonso can't save them every race. I've been following this sport for nearly 20 years, and I've learned that nothing lasts forever in F1. Teams can fall from the top to the bottom in a single season – and vice versa. Aston Martin is going through a difficult phase, but they have a clear plan for the future. However, that plan can only succeed if they can survive the present. Zandvoort showed us an extraordinary Alonso, a driver who can fight with a terrible car and earn precious points. But it also showed us a fragile Aston Martin – a team struggling to find pace. The biggest question now is: Is this sacrifice worth it? Will the 2026 car truly bring them back to the top? I cannot answer that question right now. But I know that in F1 history, patience is not always rewarded. And for a 43-year-old driver like Alonso, time is not a friend. Data has no gender. Only the people reading the data carry bias.